The Running of the Not Surprising Stakes

i.

Not surprisingly, the national interest was elsewhere on Saturday Aug 8 when the Not Surprising Stakes field entered that gate at Gulfstream Park. The eventual winner was GiveMeTwenty.

After all, it was Travers Day - one of racing's historic gems, even if COVID-19 moved the event to an unfamiliar spot in the calendar (it was moved to occur four weeks prior to a rescheduled Kentucky Derby). Travers attendees were track workers, horse owners, trainers and jockeys, gathered in small handfuls, and not the usual voiceful crush. 

But the Gulfstream 1-mile turf stakes (ungraded) for 3 year olds drew this handicapper's interest. The distance seems suited to some horses especially, and these were the ones I came to focus on as I pondered the form under midnight oil. These were mostly horses stepping up from optional claimer ranks - none had won more than an ungraded stakes before. Let's look at a few:

Graceful Kitten (#2) had, as a two year old run up the track in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. And this was the horses first effort as a 3 year old. The horse had shown early speed.

Kokomo (#3) runs  for Calumet Farms and Todd Pletcher, and took 4 turns to break his maiden, but had won an $75K OC here in June.

Monforte (#5) also had early speed, won his last, but hadnt run for 5 months - still a common trait among horses in this topsy turvey year.

For my part, I settled on Givemetwenty #9), ridden by hot combo of rider Jaramillo Emisael, and trainer Nick Ralphs. The hrose had run 4th, 2nd and 1st in his last three (all 50K) OCs and had the look of being formful. If you added up his last race early pace and late pace, he was best of the lot.

On paper this looked like a race where Graceful Kitten and Monforte might hook up in a dual up front. This could be such a speed duel that they would undo each other. That favored a stalking, late running Givemetwenty. And that is what happened. You can hear it develop in the race call of announcer Pete Aiello. 

ii.

Aiello calls out the fact that :

*Kitten and Monforte 'come out firing'

*They 'hook up quickly', while
*GiveMeTwenty is 'well situated' early

*the duo 'kicks well clear' and provide
*'pace a'plenty' while
*'doing each other no favors'

Aiello points out that Givemetwenty's rider Emisael (who won 3 on the day) had to straighten him out down the stretch - funny but lack of crowds can distract young horses about as much as crowds do.

And he finishes by calling Givemetwenty that "Not Surprising" winner - which I take as a pun, and a description of what transpired.

iii.

.

At this point, I am a handicapper who likes it when things on paper follow through in the real world - and I find it jarring when pace does not unfold as I think it might. The rub in predicting a horse race is this: The Past Performances are available, including the trainers and jockeys. 

Often times, when there are 3 or 4 speed horses in race most or all of them take back slightly at the break to see which of the others is going for the lead. As a result one may get an easy lead - or the pace breaks down altogether and randomness (or the sharpest jock) takes over. What the handicapper ends up doing is "handicapping the handicapping."

This race played out correctly to me pleasure. It could have been because Graceful Kitten had been a long time off. For that matter Monforte had been off since mid February.  Horses off long layoffs, especially the younger they are, seem sometimes to be raring to go, but that saps strength. As this race shows, Kitten lagged at the top of the stretch, at about the point where Givemetwenty roared past ("sweeping up on the outside") Monforte (who ran "gamely") to win by lengths.  - Bernard Baruch.

[Let's include the Travers below... after focusing my attn  on the above race I took my lead in this Travers from national handicappers Mike Beers and Ellis Stars. Mike's pick Linda Rices horse Max Factor slopped up for third, but Ellis's Trifecta: Tiz the Law atop Caracora and the Chad Brown horse over all (I pared the all a bit) hit. 

The trifecta and exacta are about the only course to take when a favorite is real - unfortunately for a poor punter.

Let's mention here that Tiz the Law looks like a realer real thing with every race. Seems to be a combination of tactical speed, stamina and a lot of the intelligence to navigate a race. All this is also a testimonial to his trainer, the 82-year-old Barcly Tagg and his jockey, young Manny Franco.]