We missed out on Tiz the Law Travers. He looked the best, but the money was short. It's shorter now in this Kentucky Derby.
Background
As winner of the Travers, Tiz the Law is the first horse (maybe in modern history, anyway) to have won and proven himself at 1 1/4 mile prior to the Derby. This odd sequence of race lengths is the result of schedule rejiggering due to COVID Pandemic. The horse is ably trained by 82-year-old Barclay Tagg, who with the Travers win gained a life-long Triple Crown citation, having won the Derby and Preakness with FunnyCide, like Tiz the Law, a New York bred.
I cant go against Tiz the Law today, even tho he will be less than 3-5. And 'Nary a man is now alive who made a living at 3-5"
But most of the field is very dull.
Tiz the Law (#17), like the second most accomplished horse – John Sadler’s Honor A.P. (#16)- is on the far outside. That might make a few lengths difference in the final outcome for both of them. From the 10 post is the closest thing to a long-shot I can endorse, that is "1000 Words" (#10). He is trained by a five-time Derby winner Baffert, and his jockey, Florent Geroux won 5 races yesterday.
The jockey angle between Tiz the Law and Honor A.P is interesting. Young turk Manny Franco is on the former and has never been at this level before. Grand old man Mike Smith is on the latter and has won this race several times.
On the very far outside is Authentic, another Baffert horse – a beautiful steed ridden by hall of famer John Velasquez. His resume is generally competitive with 1000 Words and Honor AP. All these horses numbers are nearish to Tiz the Law – all but ‘wins.’ Authentic won his last out – the Haskell in July – but his closing quarter did not bode well for the longer distance of the Derby.
His closing looked even worse than it probably was, as NY Traffic (#15) very nearly ran him down at the wire.
For my part, I passed on Authentic.
The horses mentioned above had exceptional speed figures were favored by pace. Authentic looked like a clear front runner, tho he did have to come in from the far outside, but could slow at the end, and could be caught.
I looked for one of the others to clunk up to hit the board. And I picked Attachment Rate (#13) - who could be in the middle throughout...and close at the end.
Google told me 18 horses make for a million million million possibilities. What I came up with is a slight variation on what is expert consensus. 17-16-10-13
Now to the Race Itself
Things got weird in the paddock, as 1000 Words reared, fell and in process broke asst trainer’s wrist. The horse was scratched and the outside horses moved in a bit.
At the break NY Traffic under Paco Lopez broke oddly and sharply outside – it seemed to give a slight startle to adjacent Honor AP and Tiz the Law, as Authentic moved quickly forward. [I found an interesting pre-race note by handicapper Alfonso Rodriguez-Vera ( @ARodriguezVera ) on the effect a fast breaking NY Traffic might have on the start – see below.]
Lopez was intent on keeping Authentic in view, probably trying to recreate his Haskell run, and, as it transpired he influenced Tiz the Law outwardly on the first turn and up the back stretch.
Honor AP took awhile to grab the track and ran, surprisingly, last for a while.
Authentic was comfortable on the lead, the only horse that came at him was Tiz the Law on the second turn, but he could not head him, and Authentic won by 1 1/4 L. Honor AP wended from last to 4th at the wire.
So we got the place and the show.
Authentic showed grit, as did rider Velasquez to deftly nurse the pace once in front. The 1 1/4 L is about the same as the few feet more that Tiz the Law covered in a wider trip on the track in the race. For his part, Attachment Rate seemed plum tuckered out after the 6 furlong mark.
In the Winners circle Authentic for a moment cast about wildly, knocking down trainer Baffert, his wife, and others. Authentic’s misbehavior and 1000 Word’s paddock flip will not dissuade punters who recall Hall of Famer Baffert’s past contraventions with loco weed and lidocaine, and NY Times horse racing writer Joe Drape quite rightly devoted as much space to background on these transgressions as he did to the race results.
It is not hard to read between the lines as Drape quotes Tiz the Law’s trainer Tagg: “We didn’t win it,” he said. “Baffert’s hard to beat.”
The "wise guys" had writ-off Authentic no doubt. The consensus opinion on this was summed up by "Ubercapper" Ellis Starr who wrote after the race...
'I will admit, based on way he appeared to be tiring in the Haskell, based on the 18 post & having a need the lead style with other “early speed” horses in the race, it would take an extraordinary effort by Authentic to win. His effort was in fact extraordinary."
There was plenty to like about Authentic, and this punter should have given him more consideration, and relied less on the "wise guys'' mini-chorus.
There were no floppy hatted grand dames or U of Louisville drinkers at the event this year, although there were demonstrations on both the left and the right (armed!) going on in a city that like so many has seen reckless police shootings of black civilians this year, and through US history. As Drape noted, when the horses crossed the finish line there was no roar of the crowd.
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